A Simple Physics-Based Model Predicts Oil Production from Thousands of Horizontal Wells in Shales

Categories: Current Research



Over the last six years, crude oil production from shales and ultra-deep GOM in the U.S. has accounted for most of the net increase of global oil
production. Therefore, it is important to have a good predictive model of oil production and ultimate recovery in shale wells. Here we introduce
a simple model of producing oil and solution gas from the horizontal hydrofractured wells. This model is consistent with the basic physics and
geometry of the extraction process. Compared with the reservoir simulation, the generalized scaling curve is more robust for thousands of wells and several orders of magnitude faster. Compared to the popular hyperbolic decline curve analysis, our approach is highly predictive that results in a single unique value of EUR since it is a physics-based model. We then apply our model to thousands of wells in the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian shales in U.S.
​Tadeusz W. Patzek, Wardana Saputra, and Wissem Kirati